Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Week 11...

Florida and Texas continue their year-long run at the top two spots in Al’s Top 25 and until their conference championship games, there seems to be no stopping either team. Alabama remains a solid number three teams as ACC schools Georgia Tech and Miami complete the top five.

Yes, Miami…the team that lost to North Carolina last week. As I’ve stated before, losing a predicted loss does not cause a team to fall in the rankings…the same goes for winning a predicted win. Losing a predicted win lowers a team’s rating and winning a predicted loss increases the rating. In Miami’s case, they were predicted to lose to UNC, therefore, there was no change in their rating points. Yeah, I know…I have to fix this system next year.

BCS buster TCU moved to number six while Iowa and Cincinnati fell a notch each to seven and eight. Oklahoma State made a huge leap to 9th place from 21st while Big East surprise, Pitt rounds out the Top 10.

Newcomers to Al’s Top 25 include Temple, Mississippi, Rutgers, and Arkansas while Idaho, Central Michigan, Fresno State, and Utah all dropped out.

Here’s this week’s Al’s Top 25:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Georgia Tech (4)
5. Miami (5)
6. TCU (10)
7. Iowa (6)
8. Cincinnati (7)
9. Oklahoma State (21)
10. Pittsburgh (8)
11. Nebraska (22)
12. Stanford (25)
13. Boise State (11)
14. LSU (12)
15. Minnesota (13)
16. Temple (NR)
17. Mississippi (NR)
18. Auburn (14)
19. Clemson (15)
20. Notre Dame (17)
21. Rutgers (NR)
22. Oregon (19)
23. California (20)
24. Houston (9)
25. Arkansas (NR)

Fell Out:

Fresno State (16)
Utah (18)
Idaho (23)
Central Michigan (24)

Here’s a look at this week’s key games:

· #23 California at #12 Stanford. A Cardinal win could vault them higher in the rankings.
· #15 Minnesota (at 6-5) at #7 Iowa. This is a predicted Iowa victory.
· #14 LSU at #17 Mississippi
· Ohio State at Michigan…listed only for tradition.

And for those of you who have asked…the worst team in the total listing is Ball State, which ironically just lost their Wednesday night game to Central Michigan.

Enjoy the last few weeks everyone!

Monday, November 9, 2009

...And Down the Stretch They Come!

Can you believe that the college football season is ¾ complete? Wow.

Finally, there are some significant changes in Al’s Top 25. The top three match most of the major rankings with Florida at the top, Texas second and Alabama third. After that, things get a little wacky.

The ACC surprisingly completes the rest of the top five with Georgia Tech and Miami moving up the rankings. Iowa slid to #6 after losing to Northwestern. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh claims numbers seven and eight for the Big East while two Texas teams, Houston and TCU, complete the top ten.

The strangest entry would be Minnesota, still ranked #13 even with five losses. As discussed before, when a team was predicted to have an awful year, but has a moderate to good year, they tend to be over-ranked towards the end of the year. Thus is the case with Minnesota. A similar storm is brewing with Miami. The Hurricanes were predicted to have a 2-10 record, however they currently post a record of 7-2. With two unlikely losses still predicted to UNC and South Florida, Miami could potentially finish 10-2 and have enough accumulated ranking points to finish #1. An obvious glitch in the system.

Be that as it may, it’ll still be fun to see how the final rankings turn out in another three to five weeks. Until then, let’s check out this week’s AT25:

1, Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (4)
4. Georgia Tech (7)
5. Miami (10)
6. Iowa (3)
7. Cincinnati (6)
8. Pittsburgh (9)
9. Houston (21)
10. TCU (11)
11. Boise State (12)
12. LSU (5)
13. Minnesota (13)
14. Auburn (14)
15. Clemson (15)
16. Fresno State (16)
17. Notre Dame (17)
18. Utah (18)
19. Oregon (8)
20. California (19)
21. Oklahoma State (20)
22. Nebraska (NR)
23. Idaho (22)
24. Central Michigan (23)
25. Stanford (NR)

Fell Out:

North Carolina (24)
Oklahoma (25)

As we head down the stretch, we have some very significant match-up:

· #5 Miami visits North Carolina. A Hurricane victory will propel Miami to #2.
· #6 Iowa at Ohio State. A Hawkeye win will allows Iowa to return to the top five.
· West Virginia at #7 Cincinnati. This was the Mountaineers only predicted loss of the year…could they upset the Bearcats and return to the Top 25 in this Friday match-up?
· #17 Notre Dame at #8 Pittsburgh. The Panthers are predicted to win this one.
· #18 Utah at #10 TCU. This could solidify TCU as THE BCS Buster team of the year.
· #23 Idaho at #11 Boise State. Who would have thought two Top 25 teams from this conference so late in the year?
· USC at #25 Stanford. Can the Cardinal pull of another big upset?

Oh it looks to be a good end-of-year approaching. Enjoy!

Monday, November 2, 2009

Week 9 Rankings...

Once again, there were no changes to the Top 7 teams in Al’s Top 25 while there was significant movement in the rest of the rankings.

Moving in to the #8 position is Oregon, who fairly easily defeated USC, who other’s had ranked up in the their top five, but I had previously ranked at #18. Still, it was an impressive win by the Ducks. Miami entered the Top 10 by defeating Wake Forest. To most, this wouldn’t be a big stunner, but the AT25 had predicted a Deacon victory, so Miami moves up.

Minnesota, even with four losses, is ranked at #13 after their unexpected win over Michigan State. In fact, the Golden Gophers have four unexpected wins after a predicted 2-10 season, thus their rise in the AT25.

Other new comers into the rankings include California, Idaho, and surprisingly, North Carolina with a 5-3 record.

Here’s how is pans out after week 9:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Iowa (3)
4. Alabama (4)
5. LSU (5)
6. Cincinnati (6)
7. Georgia Tech (7)
8. Oregon (18)
9. Pittsburgh (8)
10. Miami (21)
11. TCU (9)
12. Boise State (10)
13. Minnesota (NR)
14. Auburn (12)
15. Clemson (13)
16. Fresno State (14)
17. Notre Dame (15)
18. Utah (16)
19. California (NR)
20. Oklahoma State (19)
21. Houston (20)
22. Idaho (NR)
23. Central Michigan (23)
24. North Carolina (NR)
25. Oklahoma (NR)

Fell Out:
- Virginia Tech (11)
- USC (18)
- West Virginia (22)
- Ohio State (25)

We’ve got some great match-ups next week that could have serious affects on the AT25:

· #4 LSU at #3 Alabama (The winner will most likely meet Florida in the SEC Championship)
· Wake Forest at #7 Georgia Tech (A predicted Wake victory…a Georgia Tech win would propel the Yellow Jackets into the Top 5.
· Virginia at #10 Miami (Believe it or not, Virginia is predicted to win this one. Like Georgia Tech, if the “U” wins, they’ll also move up quite nicely.)
· Illinois at #13 Minnesota (A Gopher win could move them to the Top 10 despite the four losses)
· #16 Fresno State at #22 Idaho (The best conference game and match-up that no one will be watching)
· Navy at #17 Notre Dame (The Irish are predicted to lose their next three games. A victory in either moves them higher and higher).
· Oregon State at #19 California. (This is the Bears’ last game to move up the rankings…the remainder of the season includes all predicted wins).
· #21 Houston at Tulsa (Houston’s last predicted loss, thus only chance to move up the rankings.)
· #25 Oklahoma at Nebraska (Remember when this was a big game?)
· Ohio State at Penn State (both unranked in the AT25, but ranked in other listings).

Enjoy the football!

Monday, October 26, 2009

Week 8 Rankings...Starting To Gel

Al’s Top 25 is starting to gel and match-up real well with the other more well-known rankings. Then again, based on media coverage and newspaper headlines, almost anyone can come up with a similar list. At least I’d like to think my numbers are working out well…they don’t read the papers.

There was no apparent change to the top seven teams in this week’s AT25. However, the Iowa victory over Michigan State was actually an upset. However, the Hawkeyes remained at #3 merely because Florida and Texas are scored so much higher than all others. At least until Iowa joined this elite group.

Pittsburgh moved up ten spots to #8 after their convincing victory over South Florida. Their season-ending match-ups with WVU and Cincinnati should be a doozy! TCU skyrocketed sixteen notches to #9 after defeating BYU. This is the Horned Frogs same ranking as the BSC Poll. Forgive me for patting the numbers on the back.

Other teams entering Al’s Top 25 include Notre Dame (finally) at #15, Central Michigan at #23, Oklahoma at #24 and Ohio State at #25. Teams that dropped out of the AT25 are BYU, Boston College, Arkansas, and Nebraska.

Here’s the list after Week 8:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Iowa (3)
4. Alabama (4)
5. LSU (5)
6. Cincinnati (6)
7. Georgia Tech (7)
8. Pittsburgh (18)
9. TCU (25)
10. Boise State (8)
11. Virginia Tech (9)
12. Auburn 10)
13. Clemson (11)
14. Fresno State (12)
15. Notre Dame (NR)
16. Utah (14)
17. Oregon (15)
18. USC (16)
19. Oklahoma State (17)
20. Houston (19)
21. Miami (23)
22. West Virginia (24)
23. Central Michigan (NR)
24. Oklahoma (NR)
25. Ohio State (NR)

Fell Out:
BYU (13)
Boston College (20)
Arkansas (21)
Nebraska (22)

The games to watch in Week 9 are:

Georgia at #1 Florida (during preseason, this was predicted to be THE game to watch)
#2 Texas at #19 Oklahoma State (bigger than Texas and Oklahoma?)
#18 USC at #17 Oregon. (USC is rated much higher in most polls)
#21 Miami at Wake Forest (believe it or not, a predicted Wake victory)
#22 West Virginia at South Florida (Friday night fireworks)

Happy Halloween everyone!

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Week 7 Rankings

There are some significant changes in Al’s Top 25, but man oh man, we almost had a major shake-up. Both Florida and Texas squeaked by victories over their opponents. And while Alabama handled South Carolina, they fell one spot due to Iowa continuing to show unexpected dominance.

Other newcomers entered the rankings this week…warranted or not. Georgia Tech moved to #7 after defeating the Hokies. Auburn fell to #10 after losing to Kentucky. Clemson skyrocketed to #11 upon soundly defeating Boston College. Fresno State continues their mystery appearance at #12. Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh makes their debut appearance in the AT25, and Miami finally gets the recognition it most likely deserves.

Here is Al’s Top 25 after Week 7:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Iowa (10)
4. Alabama (3)
5. LSU (4)
6. Cincinnati (6)
7. Georgia Tech (13)
8. Boise State (9)
9. Virginia Tech (5)
10. Auburn (7)
11. Clemson (NR)
12. Fresno State (11)
13. BYU (12)
14. Utah (14)
15. Oregon (15)
16. USC (16)
17. Oklahoma State (NR)
18. Pittsburgh (NR)
19. Houston (18)
20. Boston College (19)
21. Arkansas (20)
22. Nebraska (21)
23. Miami (NR)
24. West Virginia (22)
25. TCU (24)

Fell Out:
Ohio State (8)
Wisconsin (17)
Central Michigan (25)

The games to watch in Week 7 are:

#3 Iowa at Michigan State
#10 Auburn at #5 LSU
#11 Clemson at #23 Miami (a predicted Tiger victory)
#25 TCU at #13 BYU
#18 Pittsburgh at South Florida
#20 Boston College at Notre Dame
Minnesota at Ohio State (A Gopher victory could put them in the AT25)
Idaho at Nevada (Idaho is on an incredible run)

Enjoy another great week of football!

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Al’s Top 25 is starting to look very similar to the mainstream rankings. Well, at least the top 10. Eight of the top ten on the AT25 are also in the AP Top 10. Iowa, which is number 10 in my poll is number 11 in the AP. Only Auburn, ranked #7, seems to be way off of the other polls.

The remaining poll seems to have a few anomalies. The most glaring is Fresno State, which has a record of 2-3 but is ranked #11. This is due primarily because the Bulldogs are expected to win all of their remaining games . As a result, they’ll not earn any more positive ranking points and any future losses will have them move down the poll quickly.

Speaking of predicted finishes, I started to wonder which teams have performed much better, or much worse, as compared to the preseason rankings. The worst, by far, is Ball State. The AT25 numbers predicted that they would finish the season undefeated. However, the loss of key players from last years weighed heavily on this year’s performance as the Cardinals have a record of 0-6. Florida Atlantic has a similar result as they were expected to finish 10-1-1 but thus far are 0-4. As for the teams that have performed better versus their expectations, Minnesota, Notre Dame and Miami (FL) have all won three games that they were expected to lose. Neither are in the top 25 yet, but if their winning ways continue, it won’t be long. However, the very best performer has been Idaho. Expected to finish the season winless, the Vandals have posted a 5-1 record with the only loss to Pac-10 surprise Washington.

Here is Al’s Top 25 after Week 6:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (4)
4. LSU (5)
5. Virginia Tech (6)
6. Cincinnati (7)
7. Auburn (3)
8. Ohio State (8)
9. Boise State (9)
10. Iowa (10)
11. Fresno State (NR)
12. BYU (12)
13. Georgia Tech (NR)
14. Utah (14)
15. Oregon (15)
16. USC (16)
17. Wisconsin (17)
18. Houston (18)
19. Boston College (19)
20. Arkansas (NR)
21. Nebraska (NR)
22. West Virginia (20)
23. Wake Forest (21)
24. TCU (22)
25. Central Michigan (23)

Fell Out:
- Missouri (11)
- Georgia (13)
- Oklahoma (24)
- Tulsa (25)

The games I’ll be watching in Week 7 are:

#20 Arkansas at #1 Florida
#2 Texas at (#26) Oklahoma
#5 Virginia Tech at #13 Georgia Tech
#6 Cincinnati at undefeated South Florida
Kentucky at #7 Auburn (a predicted “tie”)
#9 Boise State at 4-1 Tulsa
#10 Iowa and #17 Wisconsin
#16 USC at surprising Notre Dame

Whew…that’s a lot of good football! Enjoy!

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Week 5...the SEC Takes Over!

Since I’m late in publishing Week 5’s Top 25, I’ll mince with the words and just present the list::

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Auburn (8)
4. Alabama (3)
5. LSU (14)
6. Virginia Tech (4)
7. Cincinnati (5)
8. Ohio State (10)
9. Boise State (11)
10. Iowa (12)
11. Missouri (13)
12. BYU (16)
13. Georgia (6)
14. Utah (17)
15. Oregon (18)
16. USC (19)
17. Wisconsin (20)
18. Houston (7)
19. Boston College (21)
20. West Virginia (22)
21. Wake Forest (23)
22. TCU (24)
23. Central Michigan (25)
24. Oklahoma (9)
25. Tulsa (NR)

Fell Out: Clemson (15)

The games to watch in Week 6 are:

#1 Florida at #5 LSU (THE game to watch)
#17 Wisconsin at #8 Ohio State
#19 Boston College at #6 Virginia Tech

Outside of the Top 25, games that could impact the rankings are:

Fresno State at Hawaii
Georgia Tech at Florida State
Auburn at Arkansas
Nebraska at Missouri (which is being played as I type this)

Enjoy the games everyone!