There are weeks like this past week where I feel like Al’s Top 25 is spot on. Several teams ranked in the standard rankings lost while the AT25 predicted the proper outcome. Virginia Tech over Miami. Oregon over California. South Carolina over Mississippi. All outcomes predicted in the AT25.
Then the quirks start to pop up. For instance, thanks to a couple of upsets, Auburn is ranked #8. The AT25 predicts that this week Tennessee, which is unranked, will beat Auburn. If this takes place, by default of the calculations, there will be no change in Auburn’s ranking while Tennessee will remain our of the top 25. Weird, but that’s how the system works. Or in some cases, doesn’t work.
Here’s the way the rankings shape up after Week 4:
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. Georgia (7)
7. Houston (21)
8. Auburn (NR)
9. Oklahoma (7)
10. Ohio State (8)
11. Boise State (9)
12. Iowa (NR)
13. Missouri (11)
14. LSU (12)
15. Clemson (14)
16. BYU (15)
17. Utah (16)
18. Oregon (17)
19. USC (18)
20. Wisconsin (19)
21. Boston College (20)
22. West Virginia (22)
23. Wake Forest (23)
24. TCU (24)
25. Central Michigan (25)
Fell Out: Texas Tech (10)
Penn State (13)
Some notable games for Week 5 are as follows:
- Alabama at Kentucky (Can UK bounce back from the Florida drubbing?)
- LSU at Georgia (the biggest SEC game of the week)
- Auburn at Tennessee (see quirky scenario above)
- Oklahoma at Miami (this WAS the big game before Miami’s (predicted) loss to Virginia Tech)
- USC at California (two PAC-1) schools that suffered big losses recently)
- Florida State at Boston College (can BC make a statement?)
- Colorado at West Virginia (The Mountaineers are dangerous when they can hold onto the ball, which isn’t often)
There are football games every day from Wednesday through Saturday! Does life get any better? Enjoy everybody!
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Week 4...the AT50 starts to gel
Monday, September 21, 2009
Week 3 Shook Things Up!
Ah, you gotta love a week when there are so many changes in Al’s Top 25!
The Top 5 is unchanged…Florida, Texas, Alabama, Virginia Tech and Cincinnati. The top three match with most other polls, but until the Bearcats or Hokies lose a game, they’ll remain ranked high in the AT25.
New to the poll this week are Clemson, Oregon and Central Michigan. Those slipping out are Georgia Tech, Michigan State and East Carolina.
Some have asked why such teams as Miami or Mississippi do not appear in the AT25. Well, frankly, the numbers predicted that each would have a very bad year. As each team continues to win games predicted to be losses, they’ll move their way into the appropriate spot in the rankings. Likewise, teams predicted to have very good years, such as Ball State, will fall as they continue to lose. That’s the neat thing about this system…by the end of the year, it should be mostly self-corrected.
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. Georgia (7)
7. Oklahoma (12)
8. Ohio State (13)
9. Boise State (14)
10. Texas Tech (15)
11. Missouri (16)
12. LSU (17)
13. Penn State (18)
14. Clemson (NR)
15. BYU (6)
16. Utah (8)
17. Oregon (NR)
18. USC (9)
19. Wisconsin (20)
20. Boston College (10)
21. Houston (21)
22. West Virginia (11)
23. Wake Forest (24)
24. TCU (25)
25. Central Michigan (NR)
Fell Out: Georgia Tech (19)
Michigan State (22)
East Carolina (23)
The most exciting games to watch in Week 4 should be Virginia Tech vs. Miami, Houston vs. Texas Tech, Clemson vs.TCU, and Alabama Vs. Arkansas, Penn State vs. Iowa and Florida vs. Kentucky, among others.
The Top 5 is unchanged…Florida, Texas, Alabama, Virginia Tech and Cincinnati. The top three match with most other polls, but until the Bearcats or Hokies lose a game, they’ll remain ranked high in the AT25.
New to the poll this week are Clemson, Oregon and Central Michigan. Those slipping out are Georgia Tech, Michigan State and East Carolina.
Some have asked why such teams as Miami or Mississippi do not appear in the AT25. Well, frankly, the numbers predicted that each would have a very bad year. As each team continues to win games predicted to be losses, they’ll move their way into the appropriate spot in the rankings. Likewise, teams predicted to have very good years, such as Ball State, will fall as they continue to lose. That’s the neat thing about this system…by the end of the year, it should be mostly self-corrected.
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. Georgia (7)
7. Oklahoma (12)
8. Ohio State (13)
9. Boise State (14)
10. Texas Tech (15)
11. Missouri (16)
12. LSU (17)
13. Penn State (18)
14. Clemson (NR)
15. BYU (6)
16. Utah (8)
17. Oregon (NR)
18. USC (9)
19. Wisconsin (20)
20. Boston College (10)
21. Houston (21)
22. West Virginia (11)
23. Wake Forest (24)
24. TCU (25)
25. Central Michigan (NR)
Fell Out: Georgia Tech (19)
Michigan State (22)
East Carolina (23)
The most exciting games to watch in Week 4 should be Virginia Tech vs. Miami, Houston vs. Texas Tech, Clemson vs.TCU, and Alabama Vs. Arkansas, Penn State vs. Iowa and Florida vs. Kentucky, among others.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
AT25 Week 2 Rankings (a little late)
My apologies for posting the Week 2 rankings while the third week of football is playing before me (Georgia Tech vs. Miami). I had a business trip this week and only now have the opportunity to post.
There was absolutely no change in the Top 10 from Week 1. Yes, even though Virginia Tech has one loss, they’re still ranked number 4. That’s by design in that they’re still predicted to finish 11-1 this year…certainly good enough to contend for the Top 5.
The second 10 shifted somewhat. Michigan State slipped to 22nd from 11th after their loss to Central Michigan. Connecticut, which probably was very over-rated in the AT25 in the first place, fell out of the top 25 altogether after their loss to UNC. Houston skyrocketed from way down in the overall rankings after their upset of Oklahoma State, who subsequently fell out of the rankings as well. All others pretty much shifted up or down, depending on the action of others.
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. BYU (6)
7. Georgia (7)
8. Utah (8)
9. USC (9)
10. Boston College (10)
11. West Virginia (12)
12. Oklahoma (13)
13. Ohio State (14)
14. Boise State (15)
15. Texas Tech (16)
16. Missouri (17)
17. LSU (18)
18. Penn State (20)
19. Georgia Tech (21)
20. Wisconsin (22)
21. Houston (NR)
22. Michigan State (11)
23. East Carolina (24)
24. Wake Forest (25)
25. TCU (NR)
Fell Out: Connecticut (19)
Oklahoma State (23)
There are plenty of high profile and rankings-affecting games, such as Florida – Tennessee, Boise St. – Fresno St., Texas – Texas Tech and others. Enjoy!
There was absolutely no change in the Top 10 from Week 1. Yes, even though Virginia Tech has one loss, they’re still ranked number 4. That’s by design in that they’re still predicted to finish 11-1 this year…certainly good enough to contend for the Top 5.
The second 10 shifted somewhat. Michigan State slipped to 22nd from 11th after their loss to Central Michigan. Connecticut, which probably was very over-rated in the AT25 in the first place, fell out of the top 25 altogether after their loss to UNC. Houston skyrocketed from way down in the overall rankings after their upset of Oklahoma State, who subsequently fell out of the rankings as well. All others pretty much shifted up or down, depending on the action of others.
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. BYU (6)
7. Georgia (7)
8. Utah (8)
9. USC (9)
10. Boston College (10)
11. West Virginia (12)
12. Oklahoma (13)
13. Ohio State (14)
14. Boise State (15)
15. Texas Tech (16)
16. Missouri (17)
17. LSU (18)
18. Penn State (20)
19. Georgia Tech (21)
20. Wisconsin (22)
21. Houston (NR)
22. Michigan State (11)
23. East Carolina (24)
24. Wake Forest (25)
25. TCU (NR)
Fell Out: Connecticut (19)
Oklahoma State (23)
There are plenty of high profile and rankings-affecting games, such as Florida – Tennessee, Boise St. – Fresno St., Texas – Texas Tech and others. Enjoy!
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Week 1 Rankings
After the first weekend of college football, there have already been a few shifts in the AT25. Upsets by BYU, Alabama and Oklahoma State allowed those teams to move up, causing some significant shifting in the rankings (last week’s rankings in parentheses):
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (16)
4. Virginia Tech (3)
5. Cincinnati (6)
6. BYU (21)
7. Georgia (4)
8. Utah (7)
9. USC (8)
10. Boston College (9)
11. Michigan State (10)
12. West Virginia (11)
13. Oklahoma (5)
14. Ohio State (13)
15. Boise State (14)
16. Texas Tech (15)
17. Missouri (17)
18. LSU (18)
19. Connecticut (19)
20. Penn State (20)
21. Georgia Tech (22)
22. Wisconsin (24)
23. Oklahoma State (NR)
24. East Carolina (25)
25. Wake Forest (12)
Fell out: Ball State (23)
While Florida and Texas remained at the top, Alabama vaulted to #3 after beating Virginia Tech who surprisingly only fell one spot to #4. Cincinnati’s impressive Big East showing raised them to #5 and BYU’s upset of Oklahoma catapulted them to #6. Georgia’s defeat to Oklahoma State caused them to fall down three spots to #7 while Utah, USC, and Boston College each slid one spot from the week before.
Only two games in Week Two feature two teams from the AT25: USC at Ohio State and East Carolina at West Virginia. Barring any major upsets elsewhere, a win by either OSU or ECU would be about all that should shake up the AT25 next week. Other games that could impact the rankings would be Clemson visiting Georgia Tech and Wisconsin hosting Fresno State.
1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (16)
4. Virginia Tech (3)
5. Cincinnati (6)
6. BYU (21)
7. Georgia (4)
8. Utah (7)
9. USC (8)
10. Boston College (9)
11. Michigan State (10)
12. West Virginia (11)
13. Oklahoma (5)
14. Ohio State (13)
15. Boise State (14)
16. Texas Tech (15)
17. Missouri (17)
18. LSU (18)
19. Connecticut (19)
20. Penn State (20)
21. Georgia Tech (22)
22. Wisconsin (24)
23. Oklahoma State (NR)
24. East Carolina (25)
25. Wake Forest (12)
Fell out: Ball State (23)
While Florida and Texas remained at the top, Alabama vaulted to #3 after beating Virginia Tech who surprisingly only fell one spot to #4. Cincinnati’s impressive Big East showing raised them to #5 and BYU’s upset of Oklahoma catapulted them to #6. Georgia’s defeat to Oklahoma State caused them to fall down three spots to #7 while Utah, USC, and Boston College each slid one spot from the week before.
Only two games in Week Two feature two teams from the AT25: USC at Ohio State and East Carolina at West Virginia. Barring any major upsets elsewhere, a win by either OSU or ECU would be about all that should shake up the AT25 next week. Other games that could impact the rankings would be Clemson visiting Georgia Tech and Wisconsin hosting Fresno State.
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