Alabama Wins AT25 Regular Season Championship

The 2009 College Football season sadly ended last week. Oh, you thought it was two weeks ago? Nope…the famed Army-Navy game was the last remaining game this past week. Navy won. But the week prior was incredibly entertaining. Let’s hope the upcoming bowl season will be equally so.

So with Alabama defeating Florida, the Crimson Tide claims the regular season championship on Al’s Top 25. Which team garnered second prize? Nope, not Texas and not Florida. Not TCU, Cincinnati or Boise State. Position number two goes to the Miami Hurricanes. Again, after predicting “the U” to finish 2-10 this year, they surprised me with a final record of 9-3.

Here’s the final regular season AT25:

1. Alabama (4)
2. Miami (2)
3. Texas (3)
4. Georgia Tech (4)
5. Florida (1)
6. TCU (6)
7. Iowa (7)
8. Stanford (8)
9. Mississippi (9)
10. Cincinnati (10)
11. Oklahoma State (11)
12. Pittsburgh (12)
13. Nebraska (13)
14. Middle Tennessee State (14)
15. Central Michigan (15)
16. North Carolina (16)
17. Boise State (17)
18. Minnesota (18)
19. Temple (19)
20. Auburn (20)
21. Brigham Young (21)
22. Oregon (22)
23. Arkansas (25)
24. Iowa State (NR)
25. Arizona (NR)

Fell Out:

California (23)
Houston (24)

And now it’s Bowl Season! It kicks off this Saturday when Fresno State meets Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl and of course culminates with the BCS Championship on January 7 between Alabama and Texas. And if you’re wondering about Miami, they play Wisconsin in the Champs Sports Bowl on December 29.

So if Alabama wins, they’ll win the AT25 title. And if they lose…well, Texas won’t win. In fact, Alabama may still win. Only Miami can be ranked first above if Alabama loses and Miami wins. If they both lose, Alabama wins. Obviously, I have to work on the numbering system next year.

Enjoy the bowls everyone and I’ll see you in January.

In past years, this would have been the last posting of Al’s Top 25…or close to it. While I’d make an attempt to predict the bowls results or conference finals, it really wasn’t part of the overall plan…just a prediction for fun. This year, even as screwed up as my rankings are, I plan to predict such games and continue the rankings until the last down of the last game of the post-season.

Right now, Florida is top dog. They’ve been number one all season and no one has really challenged their ranking. But for the first time, we have a new number two in the AT25. Yep, because of my point system, the Miami Hurricanes have risen to #2. This is based on the fact that the numbers predicted Miami to have a 2-10 season. Instead, they’ve had a 9-3 season. That’s a 7 game swing. Not the largest, but because the Canes were probably the highest ranked 2-10 team, they reached the highest peak. Another team to take advantage of my point system is 10-2 Georgia Tech who is still ranked #5 despite losing to Georgia in the season finale. #9 Stanford (8-4), #10 Ole Miss (8-4), #14 Middle Tennessee State, #18 Minnesota (6-6) and #20 Auburn (7-5) have also benefited from my system.

Here’s Als’s Top 25 after Week 13:

1. Florida (1)
2. Miami (5)
3. Texas (2)
4. Alabama (3)
5. Georgia Tech (4)
6. TCU (6)
7. Iowa (7)
8. Stanford (13)
9. Mississippi (8)
10. Cincinnati (9)
11. Oklahoma State (10)
12. Pittsburgh (11)
13. Nebraska (12)
14. Middle Tennessee State (NR)
15. Central Michigan (14)
16. North Carolina (15)
17. Boise State (16)
18. Minnesota (17)
19. Temple (18)
20. Auburn (19)
21. Brigham Young (NR)
22. Oregon (22)
23. California (23)
24. Houston (24)
25. Arkansas (25)

Fell Out:

- Clemson (20)
- Notre Dame (21)

Here’s a look at the games of Week 14, which consists mostly of Big East and PAC-10 games as well as various Conference Championships:

· SEC Championship with #1 Florida and #4 Alabama. A Gator win is predicted.
· #3 Texas and #13 Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship. Count on the Longhorns to take this one to the National Championship game.
· The ACC Championship pits #5 Georgia Tech against overall # 38 Clemson. I know I know…where’s Miami? Still, this could be the most entertaining game as the numbers show this as a toss-up.
· The Big East does not have a championship game, but somehow, for the last few years, the last scheduled game decides the league champ. This year is no different as #10 Cincinnati visits #12 Pitt. The Bearcats should take this, but Pitt’s hungry after losing to rival WVU last week.
· #15 Central Michigan should defeat #34 Ohio in the MAC Championship
· The Conference USA Championship has #24 Houston meeting #45 East Carolina. The AT25 likes the Pirates to win this one, despite the rating difference.

Except for the Army vs. Navy game on December 12, this is essentially the last week of college football before the long bowl season. Once the bowl match-ups are announced, I’ll make the AT25 predictions and we’ll see how the season year finishes. Keep posted throughout the bowl season!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Is there a better weekend for football than Thanksgiving weekend? Well, maybe. But four days of pro and college ball with turkey and all the fixin’s…it doesn’t get any more American and better than that.

That being said, there wasn’t a whole lot of change in Al’s Top 25 over the previous week. Mississippi moved up from #17 to #8 after their victory over LSU. As a result, the Tigers plummeted out of the Top 25 from #14.

Central Michigan shoots up to #14 after defeating lowly (but highly predicted) Ball State while North Carolina rates at #15 after defeating Boston College.

Here’s the rankings:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Georgia Tech (4)
5. Miami (5)
6. TCU (6)
7. Iowa (7)
8. Mississippi (17)
9. Cincinnati (8)
10. Oklahoma State (9)
11. Pittsburgh (10)
12. Nebraska (11)
13. Stanford (12)
14. Central Michigan (NR)
15. North Carolina (NR)
16. Boise State (13)
17. Minnesota (15)
18. Temple (16)
19. Auburn (18)
20. Clemson (19)
21. Notre Dame (20)
22. Oregon (22)
23. California (23)
24. Houston (24)
25. Arkansas (25)

Fell Out:

LSU (14)
Rutgers (21)

Here’s a look at this week’s key games, and there’s a lot of them:

· #1 Florida at Florida State. Never count out the Seminoles.
· Texas A&M at #2 Texas. Another dangerous rivalry game.
· #3 Alabama at #19 Auburn. ‘Nuff said.
· Once mighty Georgia at #4 Georgia Tech. A Yellow Jacket victory could propel them to #1.
· #5 Miami at favored South Florida. Could be the best game of the weekend.
· #8 Mississippi at Mississippi State.
· #9 Cincinnati hosts dangerous Illinois.
· #10 Oklahoma State hosts favored Oklahoma.
· #11 Pitt visits Big East spoiler WVU.
· #21 Notre Dame tried to salvage respect at #13 Stanford.
· #15 North Carolina visits local rival NC State.
· #16 Boise State hosts surprise team Nevada
· #18 Temple could finish a dream 10-win season at Ohio.
· #20 Clemson represents the ACC at South Carolina.
· #25 Arkansas visits a fallen LSU.

There are only a handful of games next week, so enjoy this final full weekend of college football. It’s been a great year and I suspect it’ll be a great bowl season!

Week 11...

Florida and Texas continue their year-long run at the top two spots in Al’s Top 25 and until their conference championship games, there seems to be no stopping either team. Alabama remains a solid number three teams as ACC schools Georgia Tech and Miami complete the top five.

Yes, Miami…the team that lost to North Carolina last week. As I’ve stated before, losing a predicted loss does not cause a team to fall in the rankings…the same goes for winning a predicted win. Losing a predicted win lowers a team’s rating and winning a predicted loss increases the rating. In Miami’s case, they were predicted to lose to UNC, therefore, there was no change in their rating points. Yeah, I know…I have to fix this system next year.

BCS buster TCU moved to number six while Iowa and Cincinnati fell a notch each to seven and eight. Oklahoma State made a huge leap to 9th place from 21st while Big East surprise, Pitt rounds out the Top 10.

Newcomers to Al’s Top 25 include Temple, Mississippi, Rutgers, and Arkansas while Idaho, Central Michigan, Fresno State, and Utah all dropped out.

Here’s this week’s Al’s Top 25:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Georgia Tech (4)
5. Miami (5)
6. TCU (10)
7. Iowa (6)
8. Cincinnati (7)
9. Oklahoma State (21)
10. Pittsburgh (8)
11. Nebraska (22)
12. Stanford (25)
13. Boise State (11)
14. LSU (12)
15. Minnesota (13)
16. Temple (NR)
17. Mississippi (NR)
18. Auburn (14)
19. Clemson (15)
20. Notre Dame (17)
21. Rutgers (NR)
22. Oregon (19)
23. California (20)
24. Houston (9)
25. Arkansas (NR)

Fell Out:

Fresno State (16)
Utah (18)
Idaho (23)
Central Michigan (24)

Here’s a look at this week’s key games:

· #23 California at #12 Stanford. A Cardinal win could vault them higher in the rankings.
· #15 Minnesota (at 6-5) at #7 Iowa. This is a predicted Iowa victory.
· #14 LSU at #17 Mississippi
· Ohio State at Michigan…listed only for tradition.

And for those of you who have asked…the worst team in the total listing is Ball State, which ironically just lost their Wednesday night game to Central Michigan.

Enjoy the last few weeks everyone!

...And Down the Stretch They Come!

Can you believe that the college football season is ¾ complete? Wow.

Finally, there are some significant changes in Al’s Top 25. The top three match most of the major rankings with Florida at the top, Texas second and Alabama third. After that, things get a little wacky.

The ACC surprisingly completes the rest of the top five with Georgia Tech and Miami moving up the rankings. Iowa slid to #6 after losing to Northwestern. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh claims numbers seven and eight for the Big East while two Texas teams, Houston and TCU, complete the top ten.

The strangest entry would be Minnesota, still ranked #13 even with five losses. As discussed before, when a team was predicted to have an awful year, but has a moderate to good year, they tend to be over-ranked towards the end of the year. Thus is the case with Minnesota. A similar storm is brewing with Miami. The Hurricanes were predicted to have a 2-10 record, however they currently post a record of 7-2. With two unlikely losses still predicted to UNC and South Florida, Miami could potentially finish 10-2 and have enough accumulated ranking points to finish #1. An obvious glitch in the system.

Be that as it may, it’ll still be fun to see how the final rankings turn out in another three to five weeks. Until then, let’s check out this week’s AT25:

1, Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (4)
4. Georgia Tech (7)
5. Miami (10)
6. Iowa (3)
7. Cincinnati (6)
8. Pittsburgh (9)
9. Houston (21)
10. TCU (11)
11. Boise State (12)
12. LSU (5)
13. Minnesota (13)
14. Auburn (14)
15. Clemson (15)
16. Fresno State (16)
17. Notre Dame (17)
18. Utah (18)
19. Oregon (8)
20. California (19)
21. Oklahoma State (20)
22. Nebraska (NR)
23. Idaho (22)
24. Central Michigan (23)
25. Stanford (NR)

Fell Out:

North Carolina (24)
Oklahoma (25)

As we head down the stretch, we have some very significant match-up:

· #5 Miami visits North Carolina. A Hurricane victory will propel Miami to #2.
· #6 Iowa at Ohio State. A Hawkeye win will allows Iowa to return to the top five.
· West Virginia at #7 Cincinnati. This was the Mountaineers only predicted loss of the year…could they upset the Bearcats and return to the Top 25 in this Friday match-up?
· #17 Notre Dame at #8 Pittsburgh. The Panthers are predicted to win this one.
· #18 Utah at #10 TCU. This could solidify TCU as THE BCS Buster team of the year.
· #23 Idaho at #11 Boise State. Who would have thought two Top 25 teams from this conference so late in the year?
· USC at #25 Stanford. Can the Cardinal pull of another big upset?

Oh it looks to be a good end-of-year approaching. Enjoy!

Week 9 Rankings...

Once again, there were no changes to the Top 7 teams in Al’s Top 25 while there was significant movement in the rest of the rankings.

Moving in to the #8 position is Oregon, who fairly easily defeated USC, who other’s had ranked up in the their top five, but I had previously ranked at #18. Still, it was an impressive win by the Ducks. Miami entered the Top 10 by defeating Wake Forest. To most, this wouldn’t be a big stunner, but the AT25 had predicted a Deacon victory, so Miami moves up.

Minnesota, even with four losses, is ranked at #13 after their unexpected win over Michigan State. In fact, the Golden Gophers have four unexpected wins after a predicted 2-10 season, thus their rise in the AT25.

Other new comers into the rankings include California, Idaho, and surprisingly, North Carolina with a 5-3 record.

Here’s how is pans out after week 9:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Iowa (3)
4. Alabama (4)
5. LSU (5)
6. Cincinnati (6)
7. Georgia Tech (7)
8. Oregon (18)
9. Pittsburgh (8)
10. Miami (21)
11. TCU (9)
12. Boise State (10)
13. Minnesota (NR)
14. Auburn (12)
15. Clemson (13)
16. Fresno State (14)
17. Notre Dame (15)
18. Utah (16)
19. California (NR)
20. Oklahoma State (19)
21. Houston (20)
22. Idaho (NR)
23. Central Michigan (23)
24. North Carolina (NR)
25. Oklahoma (NR)

Fell Out:
- Virginia Tech (11)
- USC (18)
- West Virginia (22)
- Ohio State (25)

We’ve got some great match-ups next week that could have serious affects on the AT25:

· #4 LSU at #3 Alabama (The winner will most likely meet Florida in the SEC Championship)
· Wake Forest at #7 Georgia Tech (A predicted Wake victory…a Georgia Tech win would propel the Yellow Jackets into the Top 5.
· Virginia at #10 Miami (Believe it or not, Virginia is predicted to win this one. Like Georgia Tech, if the “U” wins, they’ll also move up quite nicely.)
· Illinois at #13 Minnesota (A Gopher win could move them to the Top 10 despite the four losses)
· #16 Fresno State at #22 Idaho (The best conference game and match-up that no one will be watching)
· Navy at #17 Notre Dame (The Irish are predicted to lose their next three games. A victory in either moves them higher and higher).
· Oregon State at #19 California. (This is the Bears’ last game to move up the rankings…the remainder of the season includes all predicted wins).
· #21 Houston at Tulsa (Houston’s last predicted loss, thus only chance to move up the rankings.)
· #25 Oklahoma at Nebraska (Remember when this was a big game?)
· Ohio State at Penn State (both unranked in the AT25, but ranked in other listings).

Enjoy the football!

Week 8 Rankings...Starting To Gel

Al’s Top 25 is starting to gel and match-up real well with the other more well-known rankings. Then again, based on media coverage and newspaper headlines, almost anyone can come up with a similar list. At least I’d like to think my numbers are working out well…they don’t read the papers.

There was no apparent change to the top seven teams in this week’s AT25. However, the Iowa victory over Michigan State was actually an upset. However, the Hawkeyes remained at #3 merely because Florida and Texas are scored so much higher than all others. At least until Iowa joined this elite group.

Pittsburgh moved up ten spots to #8 after their convincing victory over South Florida. Their season-ending match-ups with WVU and Cincinnati should be a doozy! TCU skyrocketed sixteen notches to #9 after defeating BYU. This is the Horned Frogs same ranking as the BSC Poll. Forgive me for patting the numbers on the back.

Other teams entering Al’s Top 25 include Notre Dame (finally) at #15, Central Michigan at #23, Oklahoma at #24 and Ohio State at #25. Teams that dropped out of the AT25 are BYU, Boston College, Arkansas, and Nebraska.

Here’s the list after Week 8:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Iowa (3)
4. Alabama (4)
5. LSU (5)
6. Cincinnati (6)
7. Georgia Tech (7)
8. Pittsburgh (18)
9. TCU (25)
10. Boise State (8)
11. Virginia Tech (9)
12. Auburn 10)
13. Clemson (11)
14. Fresno State (12)
15. Notre Dame (NR)
16. Utah (14)
17. Oregon (15)
18. USC (16)
19. Oklahoma State (17)
20. Houston (19)
21. Miami (23)
22. West Virginia (24)
23. Central Michigan (NR)
24. Oklahoma (NR)
25. Ohio State (NR)

Fell Out:
BYU (13)
Boston College (20)
Arkansas (21)
Nebraska (22)

The games to watch in Week 9 are:

Georgia at #1 Florida (during preseason, this was predicted to be THE game to watch)
#2 Texas at #19 Oklahoma State (bigger than Texas and Oklahoma?)
#18 USC at #17 Oregon. (USC is rated much higher in most polls)
#21 Miami at Wake Forest (believe it or not, a predicted Wake victory)
#22 West Virginia at South Florida (Friday night fireworks)

Happy Halloween everyone!

Week 7 Rankings

There are some significant changes in Al’s Top 25, but man oh man, we almost had a major shake-up. Both Florida and Texas squeaked by victories over their opponents. And while Alabama handled South Carolina, they fell one spot due to Iowa continuing to show unexpected dominance.

Other newcomers entered the rankings this week…warranted or not. Georgia Tech moved to #7 after defeating the Hokies. Auburn fell to #10 after losing to Kentucky. Clemson skyrocketed to #11 upon soundly defeating Boston College. Fresno State continues their mystery appearance at #12. Oklahoma State and Pittsburgh makes their debut appearance in the AT25, and Miami finally gets the recognition it most likely deserves.

Here is Al’s Top 25 after Week 7:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Iowa (10)
4. Alabama (3)
5. LSU (4)
6. Cincinnati (6)
7. Georgia Tech (13)
8. Boise State (9)
9. Virginia Tech (5)
10. Auburn (7)
11. Clemson (NR)
12. Fresno State (11)
13. BYU (12)
14. Utah (14)
15. Oregon (15)
16. USC (16)
17. Oklahoma State (NR)
18. Pittsburgh (NR)
19. Houston (18)
20. Boston College (19)
21. Arkansas (20)
22. Nebraska (21)
23. Miami (NR)
24. West Virginia (22)
25. TCU (24)

Fell Out:
Ohio State (8)
Wisconsin (17)
Central Michigan (25)

The games to watch in Week 7 are:

#3 Iowa at Michigan State
#10 Auburn at #5 LSU
#11 Clemson at #23 Miami (a predicted Tiger victory)
#25 TCU at #13 BYU
#18 Pittsburgh at South Florida
#20 Boston College at Notre Dame
Minnesota at Ohio State (A Gopher victory could put them in the AT25)
Idaho at Nevada (Idaho is on an incredible run)

Enjoy another great week of football!

Al’s Top 25 is starting to look very similar to the mainstream rankings. Well, at least the top 10. Eight of the top ten on the AT25 are also in the AP Top 10. Iowa, which is number 10 in my poll is number 11 in the AP. Only Auburn, ranked #7, seems to be way off of the other polls.

The remaining poll seems to have a few anomalies. The most glaring is Fresno State, which has a record of 2-3 but is ranked #11. This is due primarily because the Bulldogs are expected to win all of their remaining games . As a result, they’ll not earn any more positive ranking points and any future losses will have them move down the poll quickly.

Speaking of predicted finishes, I started to wonder which teams have performed much better, or much worse, as compared to the preseason rankings. The worst, by far, is Ball State. The AT25 numbers predicted that they would finish the season undefeated. However, the loss of key players from last years weighed heavily on this year’s performance as the Cardinals have a record of 0-6. Florida Atlantic has a similar result as they were expected to finish 10-1-1 but thus far are 0-4. As for the teams that have performed better versus their expectations, Minnesota, Notre Dame and Miami (FL) have all won three games that they were expected to lose. Neither are in the top 25 yet, but if their winning ways continue, it won’t be long. However, the very best performer has been Idaho. Expected to finish the season winless, the Vandals have posted a 5-1 record with the only loss to Pac-10 surprise Washington.

Here is Al’s Top 25 after Week 6:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (4)
4. LSU (5)
5. Virginia Tech (6)
6. Cincinnati (7)
7. Auburn (3)
8. Ohio State (8)
9. Boise State (9)
10. Iowa (10)
11. Fresno State (NR)
12. BYU (12)
13. Georgia Tech (NR)
14. Utah (14)
15. Oregon (15)
16. USC (16)
17. Wisconsin (17)
18. Houston (18)
19. Boston College (19)
20. Arkansas (NR)
21. Nebraska (NR)
22. West Virginia (20)
23. Wake Forest (21)
24. TCU (22)
25. Central Michigan (23)

Fell Out:
- Missouri (11)
- Georgia (13)
- Oklahoma (24)
- Tulsa (25)

The games I’ll be watching in Week 7 are:

#20 Arkansas at #1 Florida
#2 Texas at (#26) Oklahoma
#5 Virginia Tech at #13 Georgia Tech
#6 Cincinnati at undefeated South Florida
Kentucky at #7 Auburn (a predicted “tie”)
#9 Boise State at 4-1 Tulsa
#10 Iowa and #17 Wisconsin
#16 USC at surprising Notre Dame

Whew…that’s a lot of good football! Enjoy!

Week 5...the SEC Takes Over!

Since I’m late in publishing Week 5’s Top 25, I’ll mince with the words and just present the list::

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Auburn (8)
4. Alabama (3)
5. LSU (14)
6. Virginia Tech (4)
7. Cincinnati (5)
8. Ohio State (10)
9. Boise State (11)
10. Iowa (12)
11. Missouri (13)
12. BYU (16)
13. Georgia (6)
14. Utah (17)
15. Oregon (18)
16. USC (19)
17. Wisconsin (20)
18. Houston (7)
19. Boston College (21)
20. West Virginia (22)
21. Wake Forest (23)
22. TCU (24)
23. Central Michigan (25)
24. Oklahoma (9)
25. Tulsa (NR)

Fell Out: Clemson (15)

The games to watch in Week 6 are:

#1 Florida at #5 LSU (THE game to watch)
#17 Wisconsin at #8 Ohio State
#19 Boston College at #6 Virginia Tech

Outside of the Top 25, games that could impact the rankings are:

Fresno State at Hawaii
Georgia Tech at Florida State
Auburn at Arkansas
Nebraska at Missouri (which is being played as I type this)

Enjoy the games everyone!

Week 4...the AT50 starts to gel

There are weeks like this past week where I feel like Al’s Top 25 is spot on. Several teams ranked in the standard rankings lost while the AT25 predicted the proper outcome. Virginia Tech over Miami. Oregon over California. South Carolina over Mississippi. All outcomes predicted in the AT25.

Then the quirks start to pop up. For instance, thanks to a couple of upsets, Auburn is ranked #8. The AT25 predicts that this week Tennessee, which is unranked, will beat Auburn. If this takes place, by default of the calculations, there will be no change in Auburn’s ranking while Tennessee will remain our of the top 25. Weird, but that’s how the system works. Or in some cases, doesn’t work.

Here’s the way the rankings shape up after Week 4:

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. Georgia (7)
7. Houston (21)
8. Auburn (NR)
9. Oklahoma (7)
10. Ohio State (8)
11. Boise State (9)
12. Iowa (NR)
13. Missouri (11)
14. LSU (12)
15. Clemson (14)
16. BYU (15)
17. Utah (16)
18. Oregon (17)
19. USC (18)
20. Wisconsin (19)
21. Boston College (20)
22. West Virginia (22)
23. Wake Forest (23)
24. TCU (24)
25. Central Michigan (25)

Fell Out: Texas Tech (10)
Penn State (13)

Some notable games for Week 5 are as follows:

- Alabama at Kentucky (Can UK bounce back from the Florida drubbing?)

- LSU at Georgia (the biggest SEC game of the week)

- Auburn at Tennessee (see quirky scenario above)

- Oklahoma at Miami (this WAS the big game before Miami’s (predicted) loss to Virginia Tech)

- USC at California (two PAC-1) schools that suffered big losses recently)

- Florida State at Boston College (can BC make a statement?)

- Colorado at West Virginia (The Mountaineers are dangerous when they can hold onto the ball, which isn’t often)

There are football games every day from Wednesday through Saturday! Does life get any better? Enjoy everybody!

Week 3 Shook Things Up!

Ah, you gotta love a week when there are so many changes in Al’s Top 25!

The Top 5 is unchanged…Florida, Texas, Alabama, Virginia Tech and Cincinnati. The top three match with most other polls, but until the Bearcats or Hokies lose a game, they’ll remain ranked high in the AT25.

New to the poll this week are Clemson, Oregon and Central Michigan. Those slipping out are Georgia Tech, Michigan State and East Carolina.

Some have asked why such teams as Miami or Mississippi do not appear in the AT25. Well, frankly, the numbers predicted that each would have a very bad year. As each team continues to win games predicted to be losses, they’ll move their way into the appropriate spot in the rankings. Likewise, teams predicted to have very good years, such as Ball State, will fall as they continue to lose. That’s the neat thing about this system…by the end of the year, it should be mostly self-corrected.

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. Georgia (7)
7. Oklahoma (12)
8. Ohio State (13)
9. Boise State (14)
10. Texas Tech (15)
11. Missouri (16)
12. LSU (17)
13. Penn State (18)
14. Clemson (NR)
15. BYU (6)
16. Utah (8)
17. Oregon (NR)
18. USC (9)
19. Wisconsin (20)
20. Boston College (10)
21. Houston (21)
22. West Virginia (11)
23. Wake Forest (24)
24. TCU (25)
25. Central Michigan (NR)

Fell Out: Georgia Tech (19)
Michigan State (22)
East Carolina (23)

The most exciting games to watch in Week 4 should be Virginia Tech vs. Miami, Houston vs. Texas Tech, Clemson vs.TCU, and Alabama Vs. Arkansas, Penn State vs. Iowa and Florida vs. Kentucky, among others.

AT25 Week 2 Rankings (a little late)

My apologies for posting the Week 2 rankings while the third week of football is playing before me (Georgia Tech vs. Miami). I had a business trip this week and only now have the opportunity to post.

There was absolutely no change in the Top 10 from Week 1. Yes, even though Virginia Tech has one loss, they’re still ranked number 4. That’s by design in that they’re still predicted to finish 11-1 this year…certainly good enough to contend for the Top 5.

The second 10 shifted somewhat. Michigan State slipped to 22nd from 11th after their loss to Central Michigan. Connecticut, which probably was very over-rated in the AT25 in the first place, fell out of the top 25 altogether after their loss to UNC. Houston skyrocketed from way down in the overall rankings after their upset of Oklahoma State, who subsequently fell out of the rankings as well. All others pretty much shifted up or down, depending on the action of others.

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (3)
4. Virginia Tech (4)
5. Cincinnati (5)
6. BYU (6)
7. Georgia (7)
8. Utah (8)
9. USC (9)
10. Boston College (10)
11. West Virginia (12)
12. Oklahoma (13)
13. Ohio State (14)
14. Boise State (15)
15. Texas Tech (16)
16. Missouri (17)
17. LSU (18)
18. Penn State (20)
19. Georgia Tech (21)
20. Wisconsin (22)
21. Houston (NR)
22. Michigan State (11)
23. East Carolina (24)
24. Wake Forest (25)
25. TCU (NR)

Fell Out: Connecticut (19)
Oklahoma State (23)

There are plenty of high profile and rankings-affecting games, such as Florida – Tennessee, Boise St. – Fresno St., Texas – Texas Tech and others. Enjoy!

Week 1 Rankings

After the first weekend of college football, there have already been a few shifts in the AT25. Upsets by BYU, Alabama and Oklahoma State allowed those teams to move up, causing some significant shifting in the rankings (last week’s rankings in parentheses):

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Alabama (16)
4. Virginia Tech (3)
5. Cincinnati (6)
6. BYU (21)
7. Georgia (4)
8. Utah (7)
9. USC (8)
10. Boston College (9)
11. Michigan State (10)
12. West Virginia (11)
13. Oklahoma (5)
14. Ohio State (13)
15. Boise State (14)
16. Texas Tech (15)
17. Missouri (17)
18. LSU (18)
19. Connecticut (19)
20. Penn State (20)
21. Georgia Tech (22)
22. Wisconsin (24)
23. Oklahoma State (NR)
24. East Carolina (25)
25. Wake Forest (12)

Fell out: Ball State (23)

While Florida and Texas remained at the top, Alabama vaulted to #3 after beating Virginia Tech who surprisingly only fell one spot to #4. Cincinnati’s impressive Big East showing raised them to #5 and BYU’s upset of Oklahoma catapulted them to #6. Georgia’s defeat to Oklahoma State caused them to fall down three spots to #7 while Utah, USC, and Boston College each slid one spot from the week before.

Only two games in Week Two feature two teams from the AT25: USC at Ohio State and East Carolina at West Virginia. Barring any major upsets elsewhere, a win by either OSU or ECU would be about all that should shake up the AT25 next week. Other games that could impact the rankings would be Clemson visiting Georgia Tech and Wisconsin hosting Fresno State.

Al's Top 25 Pre-Season Rankings are out!

Here's Al’s Top 25 Pre-Season Rankings (AP rankings in parentheses)

1. Florida (1)
2. Texas (2)
3. Virginia Tech (7)
4. Georgia (13)
5. Oklahoma (3)
6. Cincinnati (33)
7. Utah (19)
8. USC (4)
9. Boston College (40)
10. Michigan State (29)
11. West Virginia (32)
12. Wake Forest (NR)
13. Ohio State (6)
14. Boise State (14)
15. Texas Tech (31)
16. Alabama (5)
17. Missouri (47)
18. LSU (11)
19. Connecticut (NR)
20. Penn State (9)
21. BYU (20)
22. Georgia Tech (15)
23. Ball State (NR)
24. Wisconsin (NR)
25. East Carolina (36)

As you can see, my first poll is pretty out of whack with the AP poll. That’s not all together surprising. Those that I’ve predicted to do much better than the AP will most likely fall fast in my poll once they start losing games that I’ve predicted they’d win. Likewise, those ranked higher in the AP will rise in the AT25 when they start winning games that I predicted they’d lose. Trust me, the AT25 and the AP rankings will look more alike as the year goes on.

Notice that Florida is the predicted champion in both polls, as well as others. They’re the returning champs and they have more returning starters than any other team. This is a no-brainer prediction…but will it be reality?

Texas is also not so much a surprise at number two, but you may be surprised to see Virginia Tech at number three. They’ll be tested immediately as they host Alabama in the first week. Georgia has the highest rating for “quality of opponent” which boosts them up to number 4. Their game with Florida on Halloween should be a great one to watch. Finishing out the top five is Oklahoma who has their showdown with Texas in mid-October.

Cincinnati and Utah have higher rankings than shown in the AP due primarily to their previous years’ performances. These two teams may surprise folks…or they may come tumbling down within the first two weeks. USC’s weaker strength of schedule kept them at number eight in the AT25 as opposed to much higher rankings elsewhere. Boston College and Michigan State are two other teams with rankings having been helped by previous years performances. Like Cincinnati and Utah, The Eagles and the Spartans could surprise others, or disappear my ranking view quickly.

The games to watch this first week should be Virginia Tech-Alabama, Georgia-Oklahoma St., Cincinnati-Rutgers, Oklahoma-BYU, and Boise St.-Oregon.

How I figure out Al's Top 25

When I was growing up and becoming a college football fan, I was always frustrated by the use of the AP and UPI polls to determine the NCAA Division I football champion. It seemed to me that the voting would be biased to the specific region and conference and easily influenced by media coverage. You have to remember that I grew up a West Virginia University fan and back in the day, ABC was the only network that covered college ball and that was usually one or two games a week. It was big news when WVU made the score list during the post-game show, let alone a televised game. Anyhow, I realized that the best way to determine a champion was to have a playoff system. This is a debate that continues to this day. But in the absence of such a system, I figured that there had to be some statistical method of determining the true champion. Thus was the brainchild of Al’s Top 25.

Admittedly, today’s BCS poll considers the input of several computer rankings that are far more complex than mine. I’m a supporter of computer rankings having a little more weight in the BCS ranking than they currently hold. Still, my idea of a numerical system pre-dates the published systems, so I’d like to think that I’m the first to really manifest the idea. I’m sure I wasn’t, but I’d like to think I was.

The statistical system I use has developed over the years. I still calculate most of the results manually, or at least enter the numbers into a spreadsheet manually. Perhaps one day I’ll become savvy enough to really write a true calculating program. But where’s the fun in that?

So Al’s Top 25 (or the AT25) considers four factors in it’s calculations: predicted record, strength of opponent, quality of opponent, and new to this year’s calculation, returning starters. Here’s the breakdown of each.

Predicted Record. This is exactly as it sounds. I review each and every college football game (yes, there are over 1400 games in a season) and determine the winner of each. This is done by comparing the records of the two previous seasons combined, while assigning an additional win in the record of the home team. For example, Florida State and Georgia Tech each had 16-10 records over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. I added a “win” to Georgia Tech’s record when comparing the two teams due to them having the home field advantage. As a result, Tech had a17-10 record versus FSUs 16-10 record, thus I awarded Georgia Tech the win. I know this is not a perfect system, but it’s a start.

Strength of Schedule. Usually, I have multiple teams that are predicted to have a perfect record. This year, I have eight teams listed as not losing a game. But to most pundits, there is no comparison between an undefeated Florida or Texas team versus an undefeated Ball State. To differentiate, I took a look at the overall predicted win-loss record of each team’s opponents. This was probably the most time-consuming calculation of all, but it certainly offered a separation between teams as described above. For instance, Florida’s opponents have an overall predicted record of 73-58-1 (yes, my predicted record can predict ties, although there is no longer ties in NCAA football). Ball State’s opponents’ combined record was calculated at 55-74-3. Florida, by far, faces the tougher schedule of these two teams. And by the way, Louisville has the toughest schedule of all with their opponents predicted to have a 92-39-1 record overall.

Quality of Opponent. Another consideration is that while having Ball State on one’s schedule increases the Strength of Schedule ranking due to their predicted undefeated season, this is a team that could be beaten by more talented teams with worse records. For instance, I predict LSU will have a record of 10-2-0. Despite my method of predicting outcomes outlined above, I think most would predict LSU to be big favorites in a match-up with Ball State. (By the way, they don’t play each other…this is just an example). To keep a lesser team with a good record from weighing too much in an opponent’s favor, I decided to rank the quality of one’s opponents. This was a much easier calculation in that I simply looked at how one’s conference performed versus out-of-conference competition. There may be more complicated and accurate ways to calculate a team’s “quality,” but this seemed to fit my needs and do the trick. And just so you know, the team playing the highest quality opponents is Georgia. And not coincidentally, the SEC is rated as the highest quality conference with a 73.6% winning percentage versus out-of-conference opponents. The Sunbelt Conference scored the lowest by winning only 28.9% of their non-conference games.

Returning Starters. This one is self-explanatory. I simply took the number of returning starts on offense, defense and kickers and divided by the number of starting players (24). If a team’s quarterback was returning, I awarded an extra half point for his return. The team with the highest number of returning starters is Florida (20 ½ out of 24). Considering they are the defending National Champions, it’s not surprising that most polls and rankings have Florida repeating as such due to their returning starters.

I won’t get into how these variables are calculated. For the most part, I fiddle around with multiplying and adding the numbers in various ways until there seems to be an even and logical distribution of teams. But how I use the numbers throughout the year is what distinguishes my ranking for many others.

Most provide a ranking of which teams are the best “right now.” I offer up a prediction of how the teams will be ranked at the end of the year. If every game ends up as I predict, the ranking will be just as I’ve posted them today. However, if there’s an upset, the underdog winner team will increase in points by a certain margin while the team that was upset will lose the same number of points. Since I predict Florida will go undefeated, in my system, they can never increase their point total by winning a game. However, they can lose points when they’re upset. My system sets high expectations for the predicted winners, and low expectations for the losers. And at the end of the year, any that exceeded my expectations will most likely be ranked a lot higher than they are today.

There are obviously flaws to my system. For instance, when I last did this several years ago (this is too time and brain consuming to do every year), Miami, OH was the declared champ at the end of the season. But taking away that glitch (I had no “Quality of Opponent” factor at that time), I had USC and Texas as the top two…the same two teams that met for the National Championship that season.

My main goal for this is to offer a little debate, provide some entertainment, and act as a means to get myself familiar with the college football world once again as it approaches. And for me, there’s no better sport to get geared up for than college football.

Welcome to Al’s Top 25. I hope you enjoy it and feel free to contact me with any feedback and trash talk.